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Yildiz Technical University Faculty of Construction Dean Prof. Dr. stated that a possible earthquake that may occur in Marmara could bring a tsunami with it, and said that there is a capacity for 2 7-magnitude earthquakes within 1 year.
Prof. who stated that there is a double danger in Istanbul and its surroundings. Dr. “Because we dug the shores of Marmara by ourselves. If there is an earthquake in this region, there are many scenarios such as ‘where, how high a wave will be, which way it will go’. In this regard, there is a double danger around Istanbul. When there is an earthquake, if there is a tsunami, the time to reach people is 5-30 minutes. And this period is not bad in terms of being able to do something,” he said.
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THERE IS A CAPACITY OF 2 MAGNITUDE 7 EARTHQUAKES IN 1 YEAR
Explaining the earthquakes that occurred in Turkey, Prof. Dean of the Faculty of Construction of Yildiz Technical University. Dr., He said that Turkey is a 100 percent earthquake zone and there is no place in Turkey where an earthquake will not occur. Prof. who also spoke about the expected Istanbul earthquake. Dr. “Someone comes out and says it won’t exceed 6.5, I don’t know what won’t happen. ’Will you pay for your sin? I am in favor of thinking the worst and not acting. It should be so. In history, the environment of Istanbul has the following character; it can create 2 7-magnitude earthquakes in 1 year. There is this capacity. Maybe one piece, maybe two pieces, maybe one piece this place will break. Even if the smallest breakage is 40 kilometers, we will give seven 7.2. That’s not a little. do you remember what happened in 5.8 in 2019? Transportation is blocked. Communication has stopped. It was a little rehearsal for that big earthquake. So something needs to be done. Now here they are in tension. These tensions will definitely come across as an earthquake,” he said.
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THE MOST POTENTIAL DANGER PLACE IS THE EASTERN MARMARA
The undersea landslide triggered by the earthquake can create a tsunami and it can also be high, Prof. Dr. he stated that:
“The fact is that there is mud on the slopes of these pits. If an earthquake shakes off those mudslides, there will be a submarine landslide. Is that okay? Happened. There is also in the past. From this point of view, the most potential danger place is the Eastern Marmara. There are conditions off the Çınarcık deficit and Tuzla that will allow the tsunami to be high. There are many potential places that could have submarine landslides there. There are simulations about how the tsunami could be 4 meters towards the north and 6 meters towards the south. A tsunami does not come directly from the front, but sometimes it can also be a case of turning around and changing angles and entering by hitting noses. For example, waves hitting Sarayburnu may come back to Eyup or something, enter the Strait. There are also such effects. But the probability of a tsunami occurring at the time of an earthquake is 1 in 3 earthquakes.”
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STRUCTURES ON THE SEAFRONT ARE NOT PROFITABLE IN MARMARA
Prof. Dr. said, “Either you will run away, or you will stop the tsunami, or you will direct it. There needs to be a strategy. And spatial planning needs to be done on the coasts The Marmara coasts need to be re-planned from a spatial point of view. Building a structure on the seafront is not a very rational event,” he said.
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TURKISH AND JAPANESE SCIENTISTS INVESTIGATING CHARACTERISTICS OF MARMARA FAULT
Kandilli Observatory Earthquake Research Institute, with Japanese scientists, started measurements 5 years ago to understand the different characteristics of the Marmara fault.
Ground movements are continuously recorded and data are collected with seismometers that help to determine the magnitude, duration, center and time of earth tremors.
The devices, which are 1200 meters below the Sea of Marmara, are placed at different points of the sea every 6 months. Stating that the studies have been ongoing for 5 years, Prof. Dr., described the details of the research.
Prof. Dr. Stating that they analyzed the feature of the fault in Marmara with seismometers installed on the seafloor in Marmara, he said, “This study is just one of dozens of studies conducted in Marmara. Therefore, we have very valuable scientists, one of the studies they have done. We have been carrying out the project with the participation of different universities and with the support of our teachers as a Turkish and Japanese project with the partnership of Japanese and Turkish for 5 years. I was the leader of the Turkish side.
As a result of the 5-year project, we have revealed the characteristics of the fault in Marmara, the amount of slip, which part of the fault creates earthquakes at which depth, which part of the fault is more reticent with the seafloor seismometers, opening meters that we have installed on the seafloor in Marmara. We share the results of our scientific studies. There are studies on different sea floors. The locations of the fault are being mapped by ships. The studies we are doing are also collecting data on these.
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THERE MAY BE AN EARTHQUAKE ABOVE 7 AT ANY MOMENT
We have devices that are 1200 meters below the Sea of Marmara. We discard the devices, take them after 6 months, collect the data and put them in different places. Therefore, we had the chance to understand the characteristics of the fault from length to length. The studies are still ongoing. These devices are still collecting data on the Marmara sea floor. We will receive that data in March. We will evaluate it later, but it is a long-term task,” he said. Prof. Dr.”This is an earthquake zone. There may be an earthquake above 7 at any moment. When will it happen? Nobody knows.
The studies that we will do as the earth sciences community are medium and long-term. What needs to be done in the shortest term is to make the building stock safe. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality has a study that determines the safety and current condition of buildings with a fast scanning method. There is a huge difference between the applications made before and after February 6. There is a huge difference between the applications made before and after. This is also due to the fact that our society took action after the egg hit the door. What needs to be done now is to look at the quality of wholesale building stock,” he said.
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